How Magic & Tragic Numbers Work
A simple way to understand NHL playoff races — without spreadsheets.
Playoff races aren’t just about wins and losses — they’re about paths.
NHL Magic Numbers tracks those paths using two countdowns:
- Magic # — how close a team is to clinching
- Tragic # — how close a team is to elimination
In most cases, one reaches 0 first — clinched or eliminated.
We calculate both within your team’s conference.
Magic # — Clinching the playoffs
Magic # counts down to clinching a playoff spot.
When Magic reaches 0, your team is guaranteed a place in the postseason — no matter what happens elsewhere.
How it’s anchored: Magic is tied to the strongest team that could still finish 9th in your conference (based on max possible points). Your Magic # is how many points you still need so that even that “9th-place ceiling” can’t catch you.
Magic goes down when:
- Your team earns points
- Teams around the bubble lose (the “threat line” gets weaker)
- Other teams’ max ceilings shrink as they run out of games
Tragic # — Elimination margin
Tragic # counts down to mathematical elimination.
When Tragic reaches 0, there is no possible future where your team can make the playoffs.
How it’s anchored: Tragic is tied to the playoff cutoff in your conference. If your team is currently in a playoff spot, it’s anchored to the 9th-place chaser. If your team is currently outside, it’s anchored to the 8th-place line. Tragic reaches 0 when your max possible points can’t get above that line.
Tragic goes down when:
- The 9th-place chaser gains points
- Your team loses (you burn a game and lower your future ceiling)
Why numbers can move in surprising ways
- Tragic can go down even after a win
- Magic may not change after a loss
- Both can move at once
This happens because the numbers depend on ceilings (max possible points) and the chaser line — not just whether you won tonight.
Example: if you win, Magic often drops (you gained points), but Tragic can also drop if the 9th-place chaser gained ground elsewhere or if your ceiling changed relative to that line.
Why we show both numbers
Most standings tell you where teams are right now. Magic & Tragic tell you what’s still possible.
- Who controls their own fate
- Who needs help
- Who’s running out of runway
Together, they show the shape of the race — not just the snapshot.